Trading requires intense personal involvement.
You have to do your own homework, and that is what I advise people to do.
May 01, 2024 / Wednesday / EOD
NDX – Yesterday’s down bar currently suggests a bearish outlook. (Seven hours remain before the session closes.)
Today, The Fed will reveal its interest rate decision, though people believe it will remain the same with 99% certainty (source: CME FedWatch Tool ).
The market is the strictest employer. It doesn’t forgive you for taking days or weeks off. It doesn’t like you to go on vacation. No union, no guaranteed paychecks. It doesn’t care if you get sick or have a baby. It doesn’t forgive you for not doing your homework and being unprepared. But… when you spend years studying its habits and earn its respect, the market will pay you well.
May 13 2024, Monday. (2 hours left to the session)
Since the low of April 19, 2024, the financial market has been on a rollercoaster ride. The market began an upward wave, only to face selling pressure on April 29, 2024. This day marked a turning point, with the following two days exhibiting bearish tendencies, particularly noticeable in their increased volume. However, the subsequent day closed on an upward note, though not strong, which looks surprising.
From a bullish perspective, this upward turn appears quite logical. This is the first significant correction since December 2023, and given that the major trend is upward, the initial assumption would be that the trend will continue unless substantial selling demonstrates its strength or the market becomes weak and buyers can’t push higher. As of now, there is no evidence of solid selling, although some market weakness is observable.
By the end of the week, the market seemed somewhat exhausted, but it remains unclear whether this fatigue is sufficient to trigger a downturn.
It’s also important to consider that the market’s behavior of creating local bottoms and highs and its approach to KL may change due to a shift in players’ strategies, reflecting a changed environment, such as higher interest rates. However, it’s still uncertain whether this is the case. In such a scenario, only the big picture matters, and the rest is merely noise.
In conclusion, the market’s recent behavior has been a mix of ups and downs, with some signs of weakness but no clear indication of a significant downturn. As always, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the bigger picture and not get lost in the noise. The market’s future direction will depend on a variety of factors, including interest rates and the strategies of market players. As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and shape the market’s trajectory.
May 16, 2024 EOD
As we move into the second half of May, it’s an opportune moment to reflect on the market’s performance so far. The month began with a brief selling phase on May 1st, but a turnaround quickly followed this. On May 2nd, the S&P 500 (SPX) reversed course and began an upward trajectory. Remarkably, every subsequent daily bar in May has closed either higher or at the same level as the previous day, indicating a strong and consistent upward momentum.
The most notable milestone came on May 15th, when the SPX closed at an all-time high (ATH), resuming its uptrend. This performance underscores the market’s resilience and the bullish sentiment among investors.
As we continue through May, it is important to monitor whether this upward trend sustains or if any significant corrections emerge. For now, the SPX’s performance in May has been robust, setting a positive tone for the weeks ahead.